SITREP 6/23/24: Coordinated Terror Attacks by Ukraine and Friends Seek to Sow Instability
Today what appeared to be a large coordinated series of terror provocations was carried out by Ukraine and Western intel assets. Just a couple reports ago I wrote about how it’s been openly declared that Ukraine may resort to naked terrorism against Russian schools, so we know the pivot toward a purely asymmetric terror war has already been on the cards:
In accordance with that, today Ukraine launched a coordinated ATACMs strike on beachgoers in Sevastopol, reportedly injuring ~150+ or more, and killing half a dozen, though that death toll may rise as per usual. At the same time, a jihadi terrorist cell was activated in Dagestan, which went on a killing spree targeting Orthodox Christian churches, as well as a Synagogue, with one of the Orthodox priests reportedly having his throat slit. Also, an attack occurred on the Abkhazia border with multiple dead as well. Keep in mind this is just days after an ISIS cell staged an attack in a Rostov prison, though fortunately the only victims there were the jihadis themselves.
The newly activated spree is clearly meant to provoke religious strife and ethnic tensions within Russia at its vulnerable Caucasian flanks.
Is it any surprise then that, in perfect accordance with the stated terror goal above, top pro-UA figures are voicing a uniform propaganda line about the effect the latest strikes will have against Putin and Russia? Just take a look for yourself, again from the earlier article which predicts the terror campaign—carefully read the underlined portion:
Now behold as top pro-Ukrainian accounts mimic the narrative in perfect lockstep after today’s terror attacks:
Thus is the mechanism behind the simplistic information attack: Destabilize Russia under the scheme of exaggerated panic in order to sow social unrest and dissatisfaction with the leadership’s responses. Make it seem like Putin is “losing grip” on the situation, and that the brewing ‘instability’ is a result of society rising up, a narrative that will naturally be chained along and amplified by the Western corporate press. It’s a very run-of-the-mill psyop technology package.
But it does put Russia between rock and hard place to the extent that they’re forced into choosing between two non-ideal directions. By blaming the U.S. and escalating in some direct kinetic way, Russia would be playing into Zelensky’s hand of appearing the ‘aggressor’, which will free NATO to coerce more of its membership into taking hostile stances against Russia. Conversely, by doing nothing, it does potentially generate ill-will in the Russian citizenry who may perceive the leadership as abandoning them by acting weak in the face of such overt targeted aggression.
Recall that just days ago in Vietnam, Putin addressed Kiev’s escalations by implying that the more they threaten Russia’s statehood, the more resolved Russia will be to “go all the way”:
The AFU reportedly released this video of 8 ATACMS missiles being fired, presumably onto Crimea:
If true it would point to Russian ISR weaknesses that such a large assembly of launchers can fire at will without being tracked and at least partly destroyed. However, it could be a propaganda video, as Rezident UA channel today released this rumor as to how the strikes are being carried out:
“Our source at the General Staff said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are launching missile attacks on Sevastopol and Crimea with the help of dry cargo ships, on which launchers with ATACMS missiles are placed. After launch, the ship goes to the Black Sea or Odessa cargo port and merges with other dry cargo ships that are stationed there.”
If there’s any truth to that, it would point to Ukraine’s launchers being so vulnerable to Russian counterattack that they’re forced to resort to such elaborate means to launch the strikes.
But the only good news as takeaway is that Russian AD is reportedly said to have downed not only all—or at least most—of the missiles in the latest round, but also many other recent salvos over the past week or two. The lack of any new Ukrainian footage of targets being successfully hit attests to this, which means at the least that Russia is starting to successfully interdict the ATACMS missiles.
This follows “rumors” a week ago that Russia was moving an S-500 unit into Crimea, which has a more powerful radar able to track ballistic missiles with such 0.2m2 RCS characteristics at much greater distances and altitudes. That being said, Ukrainian drones continue to strike Russian oil targets, but rarely with ‘devastating’ results. One of the latest such strikes near Krasnodar merely ‘damaged’ a single oil tank, which is negligible in effect.
In the meantime, while Ukraine continues wasting their precious resources striking civilian targets or Crimea in general—which has no real military value—Russia steadily wears down the Ukrainian energy grid and battlefield forces with a nonstop onslaught of massive Fab attacks.
Zelensky himself even announced yesterday that Russia has already launched a whopping 2,400 bombs just in the past 3 weeks alone.
How many AFU soldiers on average are eliminated by each one of those bombs, do you think? Multiply that number by 2,400, then double or triple that figure to allot for casualties from artillery and other means.
Ukrainian energy infrastructure reportedly burns after yesterday’s strike:
Ukraine’s main energy utility provider, Ukrenergo:
In a video that seems scripted in its perfection, the head of Ukrenergo even lost power just seconds after boasting that everything was under control:
CNN was forced to cover the developing energy grid situation:
The article states that Spring and Summer have been the periods with least power demand, yet now for the first time in the war they are seeing daily blackouts.
“If we don’t restore the existing the damaged plants, if we don’t improve the interconnector capacity for input, if we don’t build these distributed generators, at least in some places… then people will have power for less than four hours per day,” says Dmytro Sakharuk, executive director of DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private energy company.
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So, what’s next?
Russian forces continue making gains on nearly every front, visualized by the handy SouthFront maps below. The most significant are the central pushes toward the Toretsk axis:
Where they captured the settlement of Shumy:
This remains the most important axis because it’s another area long fortified and leads right to the key stronghold of Konstantinovka, which itself is the final gateway to the Kramatorsk agglomerate. Even Ukrainian People’s Deputy Mariana Bezuhla was forced to issue an angry condemnation of the general staff for the losses here:
Other directions include advancement in the following areas:
Not seen above are incremental advancements in Krasnogorovka, which as you can see is more than half captured:
As well as Razdolovka, which is slowly being taken north of Bakhmut:
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To look briefly further ahead, we’ve had some interesting developments.
Almost as if the Russian leadership ‘knows something we don’t’, they’ve made a series of statements in the past few days that seem to point to an early conclusion to the conflict.
First, Putin again reiterated that he believes Zelensky will be ‘replaced’ in early 2025:
One scenario some analysts have hypothesized is the following:
Right now there are rumors that Syrsky is being forced to put together another “offensive” for this fall, and channels like Rezident claim sources indicate reserves are being built up for this. The reasons are several-fold, but they include the U.S. mandate to launch a successful offensive right in time for the U.S. election to give Biden a final propaganda boost.
Our source in the General Staff reported that the Commander-in-Chief has started forming reserves for a future counteroffensive, which must take into account the failures of 2023. The command has conditioned retaining Syrsky in his position on the effectiveness of the new campaign, which needs to demonstrate the Ukrainian Armed Forces' ability to conduct offensive operations and must occur before the U.S. elections.
#Inside
Our source in the General Staff said that the new law on mobilization now covers 60% of the plans from the Armed Forces. This situation does not suit Syrsky, who promised Zelensky to start a new counterattack in late August for elections in the United States, which is why mobilization methods will be tightened from July.
So the theory goes, once that offensive is spectacularly quashed by Russian forces, it will be the final blow to Zelensky’s image. He will be totally tarnished and the West will have no further use for him, with rumors indicating Zaluzhny will be brought back into the fold.
Not surprisingly, Arestovich appears aware of this current as he’s suddenly offered himself up for the Ukrainian presidency in the latest video, even extending an olive branch to Putin with the claim that he’s ready to shake Putin’s hand:
So according to that scheme, Ukraine will give one final gasping hurrah, then Zelensky will be packaged up and sent off to the farm.
Now, in an incident that’s generated a swell of chatter among the Russian punditry, Belousov, while visiting the 155th Marines barracks, made a very odd statement. First, he sternly threatened the commanding officers with ‘criminal’ charges if their construction job is not complete on time—a sight to behold of its own. But then, more interestingly, the reason he gave for such impatience is because: “the guys will start coming back soon”:
This has led to raging debate as to what he means. The pro-UA crowd claims he’s implying the coming peace negotiations will end the war; while the Russian side naturally interprets his remark as meaning the war will end soon with a massive victory and de-mobilization of troops. For the hell of it, I’ll take the middle ground and say it could simply be referring to the rotation of troops—but who knows?
If that wasn’t enough, Apti Alaudinov in a new interview stated that the “war will be over by the end of this year”:
I have great respect for Apti, but he very often hypes things up baselessly—so personally, I don’t put too much stock into the statement. Nevertheless, the overall accumulation of such seeming sentiments is interesting.
It should be also noted that the Russian SVR—via their official Kremlin site—even issued a statement in support of Putin’s words above, titled as follows:
Read the bolded portion very carefully:
20.06.2024
The press bureau of the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation reports that, according to information received by the SVR, Washington and its satellites are satisfied with the situation that has developed since May 20 this year, in which Zelensky's legitimacy completely depends on Western support. The Ukrainian "president" has lost all independence. He is already completely on a " short leash "in the hands of curators from the Washington regional committee and will not be able to avoid responsibility for unleashing a" large-scale war " in Europe. Its Western masters will easily sacrifice it when Russia has consolidated its gains on the battlefield, and the exhausted and demoralized Ukrainian troops find themselves in a hopeless situation.
Having exhausted such" usefulness "of Zelensky and realizing the futility of hopes for a" strategic defeat of Russia", the White House will not hesitate to throw him on the dustbin of history, replace him with one of the Ukrainian politicians who will be acceptable for negotiating a peaceful settlement of the conflict with Moscow. The most suitable candidate in Washington is considered to be the former commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine V. Zaluzhny.
In such circumstances, Zelensky's hysterical statements about his intention to "bring Russia to its knees" sound especially comical. Wandering around Western capitals, the self-proclaimed "president" is trying to create the impression of a boisterous activity and at least somehow justify the usurpation of power. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that the" Zelensky project " will soon be closed by the White House.
SVR Press Office of Russia
Well, there you have it: the entire script for the next 9 months or so is generously provided us. And it’s one I myself have been writing since nearly the beginning. My earliest readers here will recall from the very first reports, my main prediction was that Zelensky will be overthrown in a military coup by generals amenable to making peace with Moscow in order to save the remainder of their soldiers’ lives. We’ll see how it plays out, but for now I still maintain this the likeliest outcome, though it can of course be attenuated by the cunning Yermak and co. with their purge of all top military leadership who may be suspected of harboring such inconveniently unbecoming ‘sympathy’ for the cannon fodders’ lives.
Also, the French thinktank Stratpol released a new report with a not altogether different conclusion:
Some excerpts (mind the slightly wonky auto-translation):
Describing the current situation within Ukraine itself, the colonel Galactéros described as “catastrophic”. Kiev does not have the resources needed to continue the war, but it does not negotiate. This stalemate threatens not only the Ukrainian people, but the whole of Europe.
“Ukraine is in a military situation catastrophic. It lacks of the men, weapons, ammunition. Lack of everything. Today, Ukraine needs of 500,000 people to contain the Russian offensive. But where will she these 500 000? It is a question of engagement, because Europe will not send its population. Russia has explained very clearly what will happen with the armed forces of the european countries on the territory of Ukraine. It is time to negotiate, but the West does not want to. Because the situation on the front has not been developed in favour of the West. Moscow does not need to negotiations, because she is now in a position of strength. I hear the position of Russia, which is the surrender of Ukraine. I think the continuation of the conflict is extremely dangerous for Ukraine and Ukrainians, as well as for Europe as a whole.”
And:
“In any case, the negotiations will be held between Moscow and Washington. Because in the case of the Ukraine, there are a lot of questions. Zelensky, is it legitimate? Was there a real support among the people? That may be a negotiator in such a case? Zaluzhny? Arestovich? Ukrainian politicians, who have already moved to London? I am sure that, given the military situation, economic and social situation in Ukraine, the popularity of the current authorities in the people is extremely low. If the only solution that the current government can offer is to send everyone to the front, then it is absurd. This is horrible and inhuman.”
Finally, we have a new interview with Ukrainian philosopher and Maidan activist Sergei Datsyuk, with the Kiev journalist Alexander Shelest. Datsyuk states “Ukraine has one year left, then a heroic death”.
The video’s AI translation is a bit wonky, but I’ve copied the paraphrase below:
Ukraine has one year left, then a heroic death. Ukraine needs a major shock with mass casualties to bring to its senses the jingoistic patriots who silence any leader who tries to hint at a compromise in the conflict
Ukrainian philosopher-Maidan activist Sergei Datsyuk stated this on the channel of Kiev journalist Alexander Shelest.
We would have to live until next summer. Without further changes, Ukraine will simply end. It will not exist as an economic unit. I don’t know how it is in politics, in culture, in the civil structure, but economically without changes beyond the summer of next year it simply will not exist, – says Datsyuk.
“In this sense, the question of political leadership is very important, and it sounds like this: is there a political leader in Ukraine who can offer a compromise? I maintain that there is no such leader. Whoever proposes it today will not receive the support of the majority. We need even more sacrifices for this understanding to come.
He brings up economics, which dovetails with a new series of interesting graphs reportedly released by the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance:
Ukraine is being forced to sell off almost everything in order to continue financing the war. On that count, former French intelligence director, Alain Juillet states all Ukraine agriculture now belongs to U.S. companies as Zelensky was forced to hand everything over to BlackRock:
Ukrainian grain belongs to US companies, said Alain Juillet, the former head of France's economic intelligence service. He recalled the Kiev regime's complaints that Russia was supposedly starving the world because Ukraine was unable to export grain. "This was a lie, because the grain no longer belonged to Ukraine, but to American companies," Juillet said in an interview with the Club des Vigilants portal. Ukraine does not have the means to pay for arms deliveries, and the Americans do not give anything for free, the expert stressed. "What guarantee did Zelensky give the Americans? He promised that an American investment fund would be responsible for the reconstruction of Ukraine," Juillet added.
I suppose it’s only fitting, then, that I saw this meme today:
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One thing that should be mentioned is, in support of the ceasefire theory, Seymour Hersh has now issued a new report from his ‘insider sources’ that Putin’s recent peace offerings were in fact in conjunction with secret ongoing negotiations with Washington:
According to Seymour Hersh, citing sources, Moscow and Washington “informally discussed” the concessions that Russia and the West could make in resolving the Ukrainian conflict, and Putin’s statement was allegedly made after “a series of highly classified negotiations between representatives of the Russian Federation and the West”, at which a possible attack by Russian forces on Kharkov was discussed.
I’d take it with a grain of salt, as Hersh has previously described similar secret negotiations, not to mention has been wrong on some of his big ‘source’ leaks, particularly in regard to Nord Stream and the Kerch Bridge attacks.
That being said, there is a reasonable supposition to be made that Russia may be slightly holding off from any “major” big arrow attacks in order to first await the results of the American election. Any large scale offensive guarantees high casualties. Russia has been building a whole second army for a while now, but has not utilized it. One possibility is that, since it’s not too far away, Russia wants to see if Trump wins and forces Ukraine to capitulate by withholding all further U.S. funding and arms. This would allow Russia to win without expending mass amounts of effort and losses. At the minimum, Trump may be able to get the Ukrainian leadership to negotiate under Russia’s preconditions.
Should that fail, Russia may be saving its biggest guns for a summer 2025 offensive to finish off Ukraine as, by that point, if the U.S. election has not changed things, it would be obvious there is no other way to do it than the ‘brute force’ method.
Another thing:
Some may recall Budanov and others claimed the Crimean Bridge would be destroyed by June, or the first half of 2024. It’s still standing, and I continue to maintain the ATACMS can’t do much to it, particularly now that Russian AD has been familiarized with the missiles. Maybe Budanov reads this blog as, in a new interview with the Inquirer, he made the following statement:
He believes that long-range ATACMS missiles, which Biden finally delivered to Ukraine in recent months, could ultimately take out the bridge. Those who claim ATACMS aren’t powerful enough to do the job are mistaken, he said. “They should read the technical manuals. The only question is their quantities, but principally speaking, these missiles will allow us to fulfill such a mission.”
Well, of course—anything can be taken out with the right quantity. Hell, you can down the bridge with enough ping pong balls if you had access to trillions of them. But Ukraine doesn’t have the quantity—not just of the missiles themselves, but of the firing platforms that can saturate enough of the missiles at the same time that could stand a chance of getting past AD nets in great enough number.
Budanov also made another remark that seemed to oddly riff off of comments we’ve made here recently. It was in response to low-value rumors the Kremlin may use tactical nukes, like the following:
⚡️⚡️⚡️#Inside
MI6 transmitted new intelligence to the Office of the President and the General Staff that the Kremlin is ready to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, and they are now selecting targets in Western Ukraine. British intelligence recommends that Bankova prepare the population of this region for possible consequences.
Budanov echoed my own words when I wrote that tactical nukes are mostly pointless in Ukraine as there are no concentration of troops—they would only be useful against airfields, and that only if F-16s come into play, which they probably won’t even do:
Budanov scoffs at the idea that Moscow would use tactical nuclear weapons if control of Crimea were threatened, a fear Putin constantly fans. The Ukrainian believes he understands Putin’s mindset and limitations.
“First of all, I know what is really happening out there. Secondly, I know the real characteristics of Russian nuclear weapons. What use would it have? We don’t have big concentrations of troops for which such nuclear weapons would be appropriate.
“And to break holes in our defense lines is possible with conventional means of warfare. Besides, using nuclear weapons would lead to big political risks for Putin.”
That said, from Vietnam Putin did issue the ominous statement days ago that the Russian nuclear doctrine may have to be ‘updated’ in accordance with the West’s loosening of their own nuclear threshold: